Global air cargo tonnages stabilized in October close to their levels this time last year, with preliminary full-month tonnage figures for October down just -1% compared to those in October 2022, having tracked last October’s demand patterns closely on a week-by-week basis throughout the month, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

That difference of -1% in October is the smallest full-month year-on-year drop recorded so far this year, narrowing from a year-on-year decline of -10% in the first quarter, -6% in the second quarter and -3% in the third quarter of the year. But this narrowing of the gap compared with last year’s demand levels should be seen more as a stabilization than a recovery, with tonnages in October 2022 having already experienced a double-digit percentage decline (-13%) compared with those of the previous year, heralding a non-existent peak season last winter.

To put these demand levels into context, tonnages for the full year in 2022 were around -6% below the (near-record) full-year figures for 2021, and just slightly above (+2%) those in 2016, with full-year figures for 2023 set to be significantly below last year’s levels (around -5%).